Taiwan's Rapidly Closing Window: A Strategic War in the Indo-Pacific?
How Taiwan Can Balance Autonomy and Aggression in the 21st Century
Strategic Calculus for War
US: Taiwan’s Strategic Autonomy
The U.S. has a strategic interest in maintaining Taiwan's autonomy to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Taiwan's strategic location and its role in global semiconductor manufacturing make it a critical ally for the U.S. (Global Guardian, UPenn).
The US continues to focus on strengthening Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities and maintaining its de facto independence. Moreover, the DPP government in Taiwan has increased its defense spending and sought closer military ties with the US and other allies.
CCP: Reunification
China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and is committed to reunification, using force if necessary. Taiwan's strategic importance and its symbolic value for Chinese nationalism drive Beijing's determination to assert control over the island.
Under President Xi Jinping, China has significantly modernized its military, focusing on capabilities that would be critical in a Taiwan conflict, such as amphibious assault forces, missile systems, and cyber warfare capabilities.
Public Support?
In the U.S., while public support for US-Taiwan relations is high – over two-thirds – opinion on deploying troops to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion is mixed, with 38% in favor and 42% opposed (Global Taiwan). This ambivalence reflects broader concerns about the costs and risks of military intervention.
Moreover, Taiwan’s confidence in the U.S. coming to Taiwan’s defense is minimal. A 2023 survey showed a significant drop in trust towards the US, with only 34% of Taiwanese regarding the US as trustworthy, down from 45% in 2021.
There is a growing concern about the potential for a cross-strait conflict, with public opinion divided between supporting independence and maintaining the status quo.
The Cost of War
According to military simulations, such as those conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a conflict over Taiwan would lead to significant losses for both sides. The simulations also predict substantial civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Taiwan.
A full-scale invasion could further escalate into a broader conflict implicating US allies such as Japan, Philippines, Australia, and NATO members, potentially leading to a global war.
High Casualties:
The simulations also predict heavy casualties and losses for the US and its allies, including Taiwan and Japan, in terms of ships, aircraft, and personnel.
The US Navy could potentially lose two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface warships(“The First Battle of the Next War”, CSIS).
Likewise, Taiwan's military would suffer severe degradation, including the loss of its entire fleet of destroyers and frigates (CSIS).
Economic Ruin:
Taiwan's economy, especially its critical semiconductor industry, would be devastated.
The resulting global supply chain disruptions would have far-reaching economic consequences, affecting industries reliant on Taiwanese exports.
Strategic Stalemate:
Despite the high costs, the simulations suggest that the US and Taiwan, with the support of Japan, could successfully repel a conventional amphibious invasion by China, maintaining Taiwan's autonomy.
However, such a victory would come at a significant cost, potentially damaging the US's global position for many years and even destabilizing CCP rule due to heavy losses (CSIS).
—
The period from 2024 to 2028 represents a critical window for potential conflict over Taiwan.
China's, the US', and their allies' strategic interests and military preparations, coupled with public statements from key officials, suggest that the risk of conflict remains high.
While a limited conflict, such as a blockade, is more likely than a full-scale invasion, both scenarios carry significant risks and implications for regional and global stability.
Managing these dynamics carefully and maintaining open channels of communication will be essential to preventing escalation and ensuring stability in the Taiwan Strait and beyond.
A Rapidly Closing Window
The window for a diplomatic resolution in the Taiwan Strait is rapidly closing, with increasing military tensions and geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China.
It is hard to imagine that even if the DPP made concessions to cooperate on deals such as the CSSTA, this would not be possible.
The CSSTA, proposed in 2014, aimed to stabilize cross-strait relations by opening markets and facilitating cross-cultural exchange.
However, it faced significant opposition during the Sunflower Movement, where protesters feared increased Chinese influence and economic dependence.
Despite efforts to stabilize U.S.-China relations, including a summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in November 2023, tensions remain high (Decoding China: Inevitable Taiwan tensions in 2024 – DW).
China's potential for a military blockade, rather than a full-scale invasion, is seen as a significant threat, which could effectively cut off Taiwan's trade and logistics.
A Defense of Culture
There is a culture war brewing in Taiwan between the so-called “pro-West” and “pro-China.”
This is most salient in the de-sinicization of Taiwanese culture, especially the youth, through education and the tearing down of Chiang Kai-Shek era statues.
The pro-West camp, primarily represented by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), attempts to emphasize a distinct “Taiwanese” identity and democratic values.
It promotes Taiwan as a beacon of democracy in the Chinese cultural sphere, contrasting it with the authoritarian regime of the PRC.
The result is advocating for closer ties with Western democracies and framing Taiwan's culture and identity in opposition to that of the PRC – leading to heightened tensions and conflict with China.
On the other side, the “pro-China” camp is a misnomer: the majority
Do not actually advocate for reunification but instead build pragmatic relations with China,
They are loosely organized with no concerted “ideological” push as in the pro-West camp.
Instead, they emphasize the historical and cultural connections between Taiwan and China, arguing for a realpolitik approach to cross-strait relations.
However, the reality of Taiwanese politics and culture is much more nuanced.
Again, it is about understanding the difference between ROC, the “Republic of China,” the legal, constitutional governing body of Taiwan, and Taiwan, the island itself.
In recent years, there has been a significant push to replace ROC with “Taiwan.”
The name itself was coopted as part of a “separatist ideology,” not from the Mainland, but from the top-line party platform of the DPP to form an unconstitutional governing body for Taiwan: “1. Establishing the Republic of Taiwan as a sovereign, independent, and autonomous nation”(DPP Party Platform)
This ideological framing is part of a broader effort to distinguish Taiwan from the People's Republic of China (PRC) and emphasize its unique democratic and cultural identity.
The reality is as follows the history of modern Taiwan is intrinsically linked to China. The question is “whose China?”.
Understanding these complexities is crucial for navigating Taiwan's future in a way that balances its democratic values, cultural identity, and geopolitical realities (Further Reading: In Defense of the Republic of China (Taiwan) - by H.T. Liau)
A Hail Mary
A civil awakening in Taiwan’s populace could play a crucial role in preventing the DPP from driving the island into a potential conflict.
Increased public awareness and engagement in political processes could lead to more balanced and pragmatic approaches to cross-strait relations.
Civil society organizations and grassroots movements could advocate for renewed dialogue and cooperation with both China and the West, emphasizing peaceful coexistence and mutual benefits over confrontation.
A more engaged and informed populace could pressure the government to pursue policies that prioritize stability and economic prosperity over aggressive military build-up.
Civic engagement can strengthen Taiwan's democratic institutions, making them more resilient to external pressures and internal divisions and helping them build a more cohesive national identity that values peace and stability.
—
Conclusion
Achieving peace in the Taiwan Strait requires a multi-dimensional approach that addresses economic, political, and cultural factors.
The narrow path to peace requires addressing the concerns and interests of all parties involved.
By mitigating hawkish tendencies, promoting pragmatic engagement, and encouraging multilateral dialogue, all parties involved can play a constructive role in stabilizing the region.
China should leverage its soft power, reduce military aggression, and open dialogue channels.
These steps, grounded in international relations theory and political economics, can help foster a stable and peaceful region.
For Taiwan, pragmatic "Realpolitik" policies should be promoted to prioritize stability and economic prosperity.
To achieve this, Taiwan should focus on addressing ideological biases, combating misinformation, opening up unofficial channels with the Mainland, enhancing public discourse, and ensuring the government adheres to constitutional principles.
For Our Concerned Global Readers:
Advocate for Track II Diplomacy:
Support informal dialogues and exchanges between academics, former officials, and civil society leaders from the U.S., China, and Taiwan to build mutual understanding and trust.
Promote Non-Sensitive Trade and Investment
Advocate for policies that enhance economic interdependence between the U.S., China, and Taiwan.
Increased trade and investment with proper due diligence can create mutual economic benefits that make conflict less desirable.
Foster Culture, Tech, and Education Exchanges
Support cultural exchange programs that highlight shared cultural heritage and values to reduce xenophobia and build a sense of shared humanity.
Promote educational exchanges and joint research initiatives between universities and institutions in the U.S., China, and Taiwan, with the right safeguards and vetting in place, of course.
Advocate for Balanced Media Representation
Support initiatives that aim to provide accurate information and counter misinformation about U.S.-China-Taiwan relations. An informed populace is crucial for a robust civil society and for resisting manipulation by special interests.
Encourage media outlets to provide balanced and nuanced coverage of the issues, avoiding sensationalism and fostering a more informed public discourse.
Engage in Civic Activism
Participate in or support grassroots movements that advocate for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. These movements can pressure governments to adopt more peaceful and cooperative policies with both China and Taiwan.
Organize or support campaigns that raise public awareness about the importance of peace and the risks of conflict, highlighting the human and economic costs of war
Promote Sustainable Development and Cooperation
Support joint environmental initiatives that address common challenges such as climate change, pollution, and resource management – building cooperation and goodwill.
Advocate for policies that align with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, which promote peace, justice, and strong institutions.
Encourage Responsible Government Policies
Engage with policymakers to advocate for responsible and balanced policies towards China and Taiwan. Emphasize the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the region.
Encourage the continuation of strategic ambiguity in U.S. policy towards Taiwan, recognizing the 1992 consensus, which has historically helped maintain the status quo and prevent conflict.